Michael Hurcomb

After a nice long vacation, I've returned to continue my blog and the first entry back will be about Diamondbacks catcher Miguel Montero.

After a banner year in 2011, Montero is off to a slow start in 2012, batting .267 with two homers in 33 games. The worst part is Montero's 36 strikeouts. He's never been that bad of a strikeout hitter, but it's at the root of why Montero is struggling to begin the year. His contact rate is poor.

Montero is swinging and missing at a career-worst 13.9 percent and making contact at 69.6 percent, which is also a career-low. That's significant because Montero has a .366 BABIP, so when he is making contact, then it's been good news for the 28-year-old catcher.

Everyone is expecting a big year from Montero as he's in the final season of his contract. Usually players in walk years have big seasons.

I advised Fantasy owners to search for an unhappy Montero owner and consider trading for Montero. It seems his numbers should rise once he starts making more contact and his average is already on the upswing in May. He's batting .280 this month after hitting .257 in April.

After a breakout season in 2011, Alex Avila was one of the most drafted catchers in Fantasy Baseball. Unfortunately, Avila didn't produce up to standards in April. However, despite his struggles, Avila still is a top 10 Fantasy catcher and owners shouldn't cut bait with him. In fact, he's probably going tp pay major dividends for you as the season progresses.

A closer look at Avila's numbers and you will see he's been a bit unlucky through the first month of the season. Entering play Wednesday, Avila owns a .194 BABIP through 18 games. He had a .366 BABIP last season, which is above the norm, but Avila is a very good line-drive hitter. His line-drive percent through 18 games is 27.3 and his flyball rate is just 27.3 percent. Avila's career average for flyball rate is 37.9 percent. If Avila keeps hitting line-drives at his current pace, then his luck should change.  

Also, Avila hasn't been very aggressive at the plate through the first month of the season. He's swinging at just 36.2 percent of the pitches he sees, and making contact with just 79.5 percent of the pitches in the strike zone and 71.3 percent of the pitches he offers at. 

Avila's numbers are below the norm right now in many critical categories, which is why I feel he's headed for an eventual market correction for the better. I advise Fantasy owners to stick with Avila and he's an excellent buy-low candidate if you can find a frustrated Avila owner. 

Two of the biggest surprises of the first month of the season have been Diamondbacks pitcher Joe Saunders and Cardinals pitcher Kyle Lohse. Undrafted in many Fantasy formats, Saunders and Lohse are both top 20 Fantasy pitchers in both Head-to-Head and Rotisserie formats. Lohse is even second behind Jake Peavy in both formats heading into Week 5 (April 30-May 6).

But the question every Fantasy owner is asking: Will it last?

And while it certainly doesn't seem like I'm going out on a limb here by saying no because both pitchers have spotty track records. The numbers show both pitchers have been very lucky early on.

Saunders has a .214 BABIP and Lohse is even better at .208. That is well below the norm, which is .290-.300. If they were closer to that median, then it would be worth getting excited over. Unfortunately, it looks as though both players will be headed for market corrections, so you can either ride the hot streaks until they cool off or sell high and grab a buy-low candidate that hasn't hit their stride yet.

It's also worth pointing out tha Saunders' opponents this year have been the Padres, Pirates, Braves and Marlins. San Diego, Pittsburgh and Miami have the three worst team batting averages in the NL.

Lohse has faced the the Marlins, Reds (twice), Pirates and Brewers. All of those teams are hitting .240 or worse, which ranks in the bottom seven in the NL.

Don't get me wrong. I feel Lohse and Saunders are both viable Fantasy arms, but as back-of-the-rotation options. Not the front-leading arms they have been through April.  

Finally, Fantasy owners are starting to understand the value White Sox outfielder Alejandro De Aza brings to the table. He's been one of the most added players in Fantasy this season and with good reason. But he's still unowned in 23 percent of Fantasy leagues, so if you still have a chance to add him, then don't miss out.

De Aza had trouble breaking into the majors with the Marlins, primarily because of injuries, but he's proven to be a nice find for the Chicago. Since 2010, he's batting .311 with a .375 OBP, .508 slugging percentage and .883 OPS in 87 games for Chicago. He also has 16 stolen bases.

De Aza has three homers in 15 games to start the 2012 season. While his home run surge will likely slow down that doesn't mean De Aza still can't help Fantasy owners. He had a .309 average, .372 OBP, .479 slugging percentage and .851 OPS in 265 games at the Triple-A level. That right there shows De Aza can hit higher level pitching.  

I've warmed up to the idea of recommending A's outfielder Josh Reddick to Fantasy owners. The only caveat is that you are going to have to be committed to rotating him in and out of your lineup because he's a streaky hitter. But I still feel he has enough upside to warrant a roster spot.

Reddick heads into Week 4 (April 23-29) batting .333 (10 for 30) with a .355 OBP, .567 slugging percentage and .922 OPS in his last seven games. He also has one homer, two RBI and four doubles in that span. Before his hot streak, Reddick was batting just .206 with one homer and one RBI in his first nine games.

People might not realize, but Reddick was considered a top 100 prospect by Baseball America in 2010. He had a .500 slugging percentage and .832 OPS in 466 minor-league games, so you can see the potential is there. He did slug 23 homers in 2008.

The biggest concern with Reddick is Oakland's home ballpark, which favors pitchers. Reddick is batting .214 at home, as opposed to .310 on the road in the early going.

However, I feel those home numbers have the chance to really improve. Reddick is a line-drive hitter (21.6 percent since 2009) and Oakland's home park is an above average stadium for line-drive hitters. It might just be Reddick needs to find his comfort zone in Oakland before he really starts to heat up.

-I'm keeping tabs on the right-field situation in Houston. Brian Bogusevic has gotten off to a less-than inspiring start, while prospect Fernando Martinez is tearing up Triple-A pitching. Remember, F-Mart was a top prospect in the Mets' system for years, but he was plagued by injury. He gets a fresh start with the Astros, and if he is recalled, then he heads to a hitter-friendly park. We might finally see what the scouts have been talking about for years, if Martinez can stay healthy and eventually join the big-league roster.

-Another outfield situation to monitor is on the North Side of Chicago. Cubs center fielder Marlon Byrd is off to an awful start in 2012 and Chicago fans will surely be clamoring for prospect Brett Jackson's promotion. However, we shouldn't expect a knee-jerk decision from Cubs president of baseball operations Theo Epstein, who usually likes to give players a full year at Triple-A. Jackson did appear in 48 games at Triple-A last season, which could speed up his progression to the majors. To be conservative, I'd expect a mid-summer promotion, especially if Byrd keeps sliding and Jackson keeps surging like he has to begin the Triple-A season at Iowa. He has a .393 OBP, .532 slugging percentage and .925 OPS in 11 games.

-I can't wait until Tyler Thornburg becomes a Fantasy relevant player. This kid continues to impress me with everyone outing. His latest effort consisted of 7 1/3 perfect frames. Thornburg has a 2.32 ERA, 1.06 WHIP and 11.8 strikeouts per nine innings in 178 1/3 minor-league innings. The scouts like Thornburg, but have some concerns, especially about his durability and command because of his unique delivery. Thornburg could end up in the bullpen down the road, which will scare off some long-term keeper owners. But I sure hope Thornburg overcomes those issues because it looks like he has the potential to be a high-end Fantasy option at the current pace he is progressing.

-Marlins prospect Jose Fernandez has piqued my interest with a fast start to his pro career. The 2011 first-round pick owns a 1.64 ERA, .139 opponents' batting average and 18 strikeouts in 11 innings in his first two starts for Class A Greensboro. Fernandez has a fastball that can reach the high-90s. He also has a plus curveball and slider, and he's working on adding a changeup to his arsenal. If Fernandez shows the same dominance he has a few starts into his pro career, then we will be talking about him plenty down the road.

-Another 2011 first-round pick I can't wait to see develop is Red Sox prospect Matt Barnes. The former UConn ace (Go Huskies!) has opened his pro career at Class A Greenville with 10 scoreless innings. He's allowed just three hits in that span, while striking out 16. Most impressively is that no left-handed hitter has gotten a hit off the right-hander and he's struck out 12 of 16 left-handed batters he's faced. If Barnes continues to dominate, then he has the pedigree to move quickly through the minors.

-One guy who probably won't move quickly since he was a high school draftee, but nonetheless impressive, is Diamondbacks' 2011 first-round pick Archie Bradley. The 19-year-old hurler has a 1.12 ERA and 0.75 WHIP in three starts for Class A South Bend. He also has 22 strikeouts in 16 innings. The scouts are already raving about this kid. He seems advanced for his age, but don't be surprised if Arizona handles him with kiddie gloves. They are plenty of quality arms in its rotation right now and plenty of quality prospects further along than Bradley. The Diamondbacks will make sure to build up his strength and stamina, so Bradley is likely a few years away from the majors.

Red Sox third baseman Kevin Youkilis has to be lucky that he's putting his slow start in the rearview mirror since third base prospect Will Middlebrooks continues to climb organizational ladder. 

Youkilis is turning the corner with a .333 average (5 for 15) and three RBI in his last four games coming into Sunday. If he continued to slump, then the whispers would have begun about a potential ETA for Middlebrooks, who is now considered one of the team's top prospects following a breakout 2011 season. Heck, the whispers still might happen even if Youkilis continues to play well.

Through Saturday, Middlebrooks is batting .359 with three homers and nine RBI in 10 games for Triple-Pawtucket. While his numbers look good, Middlebrooks still has some areas he needs to improve.

The scouts biggest critique of the burgeoning third baseman is that he needs to be more selective at the plate. He's very aggressive and doesn't draw a lot of walks. The trade-off for him is that his power swing continues to develop, but his ceiling as a hitter in the majors might be as a high .200 hitter. He does have good opposite field power, however.

Despite the hot start, probably only an injury to Youkilis would bring Middlebrooks to the majors. He still a candidate for a 2012 recall, but if everyone stays healthy, then that might not come until the second half of the season. But the fact Middlebrooks continues to mature as a hitter has made him a legit long-term Fantasy keeper in all formats.

It's worth noting that the Red Sox own a $13 million team option on Youkilis for next season, so if Boston thinks Middlebrooks is ready, then the front office could have a tough decision on its hands in the offseason. 

It's really weird to see Omar Infante as the third-highest scoring Fantasy player behind Miguel Cabrera and Matt Kemp following his two-homer performance Monday against the Phillies. 

Infante has homered three times in five games, and has more combined home runs than teammates Hanely Ramirez, Giancarlo Stanton and Jose Reyes. 

Logic tells us, though, that Infante won't keep this pace up. Infante has had just one season with 10-plus homers -- 2004 -- and never hit more than four homers in a minor-league season, so the odds of him staying in the home run race are slim.

I do, however, view Infante as an underrated Fantasy option and I wouldn't hesitate to take a flier on him in any format. In fact, in one of my NL-only Fantasy leagues (10-team) this spring, I punted on the second-base position feeling I could grab Infante in the late rounds as my starter. And I did.

Why was I that confident? Because of what Infante did in the second half last season. Infante had a .314 average, .493 slugging percentage and .842 OPS in his final 57 games last year. 

I'm not going to group Infante among the elite Fantasy second basemen, but I think he can pass as a low-end starter in deep mixed leagues if he mirrors the numbers he posted in the second half last season.

Minor Rumblings

-Cubs minor leaguer Anthony Rizzo clubbed two homers fro Triple-A Iowa on Monday. He already has three homers and nine RBI in five games. There's no arguement those numbers are great, but we have seen them before from Rizzo. He's too good for the Pacific Coast League. Now, he just needs to show he's not a Quad-A player -- too good for the minors, not good enough for the majors. One of Rizzo's big weaknesses is hitting left-handed pitchers. He's gone 2 for 5 with one homer and four RBI against lefties thus far, but it appears the Cubs won't be quick to recall Rizzo. General manager Jed Hoyer will probably be a bit more conservative this time with Rizzo after calling him up too early in San Diego. I'm still not buying Rizzo will be in the minors for most of the year. I'm stashing him in an NL-only Fantasy league and I think it's going to be different the next time Rizzo gets promoted. He will be in a more favorable park for left-handed hitters and that should help him gain confidence in the majors.

-I'm disappointed I'm not in any long-term Fantasy keeper leagues. If that were the case, though, I would have drafted Miguel Sano and stashed him for no matter how long. The 18-year-old Twins' farmhand is a star in the making. He's already got great power -- he has a .581 slugging percentage and .947 OPS in 131 minor-league games -- and he's still growing into his body. He's continued to climb the prospect rankings, checking in this year as Baseball America's 18th ranked prospect. The only negative is that Minnesota has shown it will be patient with the rising Dominican star, so we might not see Sano make a Fantasy impact for years to come. He's at low Class A right now.