Tag:Kyle Lohse
Posted on: April 30, 2012 11:53 am

Market is open for correction

Two of the biggest surprises of the first month of the season have been Diamondbacks pitcher Joe Saunders and Cardinals pitcher Kyle Lohse. Undrafted in many Fantasy formats, Saunders and Lohse are both top 20 Fantasy pitchers in both Head-to-Head and Rotisserie formats. Lohse is even second behind Jake Peavy in both formats heading into Week 5 (April 30-May 6).

But the question every Fantasy owner is asking: Will it last?

And while it certainly doesn't seem like I'm going out on a limb here by saying no because both pitchers have spotty track records. The numbers show both pitchers have been very lucky early on.

Saunders has a .214 BABIP and Lohse is even better at .208. That is well below the norm, which is .290-.300. If they were closer to that median, then it would be worth getting excited over. Unfortunately, it looks as though both players will be headed for market corrections, so you can either ride the hot streaks until they cool off or sell high and grab a buy-low candidate that hasn't hit their stride yet.

It's also worth pointing out tha Saunders' opponents this year have been the Padres, Pirates, Braves and Marlins. San Diego, Pittsburgh and Miami have the three worst team batting averages in the NL.

Lohse has faced the the Marlins, Reds (twice), Pirates and Brewers. All of those teams are hitting .240 or worse, which ranks in the bottom seven in the NL.

Don't get me wrong. I feel Lohse and Saunders are both viable Fantasy arms, but as back-of-the-rotation options. Not the front-leading arms they have been through April.  
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